02 February 2007
New U.S. Intelligence Report Focuses on Iraq Instability
National Intelligence Estimate is first threat assessment since 2002
Washington -- The U.S. National Intelligence Estimate of the Iraq situation, released to key policymakers February 2, indicates instability is still the main security challenge facing the fledgling Iraqi government and the U.S.-led coalition forces.
Classified copies of the 2007 NIE, titled Prospects for Iraqi Stability: A Challenging Road Ahead, were provided to senior members of Congress serving on intelligence oversight committees, while a declassified version of its "key judgments" was released to the public. The intelligence estimate was prepared by the CIA's National Intelligence Council with input from the 16-agency U.S. intelligence community.
Among its conclusions was that "Iraqi society’s growing polarization, the persistent weakness of the security forces and the state in general, and all sides’ ready recourse to violence are collectively driving an increase in communal and insurgent violence and political extremism."
On the positive side, the NIE said that "If strengthened Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), more loyal to the government and supported by Coalition forces, are able to reduce levels of violence and establish more effective security for Iraq’s population, Iraqi leaders could have an opportunity to begin the process of political compromise necessary for longer term stability, political progress, and economic recovery."
Although it did not call the Iraq conflict a civil war, the NIE did acknowledge that "the term 'civil war' accurately describes key elements of the Iraqi conflict, including the hardening of ethno-sectarian identities, a sea change in the character of the violence, ethno-sectarian mobilization, and population displacements."
Noting that "Coalition capabilities, including force levels, resources, and operations, remain an essential stabilizing element in Iraq," the NIE said that “If Coalition forces were withdrawn rapidly during the term of this Estimate, we judge that this almost certainly would lead to a significant increase in the scale and scope of sectarian conflict in Iraq, intensify Sunni resistance to the Iraqi Government, and have adverse consequences for national reconciliation."
At a special White House briefing, National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley agreed that the NIE supports the Bush administration's new strategy, announced January 10, to enhance security in Iraq by sending an additional 21,500 U.S. combat troops for operations in Baghdad and al-Anbar province.
In general, Hadley said, "I think overall it is a fair statement of the challenge we face in Iraq about the prospects for success and a good statement about the risks if we do not succeed in Iraq – for Iraqis, for the region and for Americans at home."
The previous NIE -- released in 2002 but only declassified in 2003 -- highlighted Iraq's threatening weapons program as the main threat facing the United States and its allies. That report came just months after the devastating terrorist attack on the United States that killed 3,000 people in New York, Washington and on an airliner in Pennsylvania.
Its judgment was that "Iraq has continued its weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programs in defiance of UN resolutions and restrictions," was a central justification for the March 2003 invasion of Iraq by a coalition of allied forces led by the United States.
Following criticism of the gathering and analysis of intelligence that led to the 2002 findings and invasion, Congress passed the Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act in 2004 to address "structural problems with prewar intelligence related to Iraq," according to Senator John Rockefeller, chairman of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence.
One result was establishment of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) first headed by Ambassador John Negroponte. On January 5, Bush nominated Negroponte to serve as deputy secretary of state and named retired Admiral Mike McConnell to succeed Negroponte as national intelligence chief.
Congressman Tom Lantos, chairman of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, said the NIE "underscores the need for a political solution in Iraq that involves all key stakeholders, both within the country and in the region."
Among members of Congress who have objected to President Bush's "surge" of extra troops, Lantos said, "Rather than the troop escalation the administration has planned, we must step up our diplomatic efforts to bring the bloodshed to an end."
In general, he said, "This document cries out for a more enlightened approach. In conjunction with recent reports from the Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction, it strongly suggests the need for a far more integrated diplomatic, political, economic and military strategy than what the President has so far offered us."
The full text of the declassified version of the report is available on the DNI Web site.
(USINFO is produced by the Bureau of International Information Programs, U.S. Department of State. Web site: http://usinfo.state.gov)
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