Military

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC

INDONESIA: "Do Not Get Trapped In East Timor"

Business-oriented Bisnis Indonesia cautioned (9/20): "We must monitor Australia's actions carefully. Australia still has its long-standing ambition for the foothold on East Timor that will benefit its future. Australia will take full advantage of the UN umbrella, placing us--especially the military--in a difficult situation."

"Militias Willing To Die For Their Land"

Armed Forces' ABRI stressed (9/18): "It is important that multinational forces note that the militias are fighting to regain the rights denied them by UNAMET, the press and the NGOs, which all sided with the anti-integration camp. At this point, they are ready to die for their land. What are the multinational troops fighting for? For the deceits of UNAMET? Ponder that, and do not let multinational troops become entrapped by human rights violations and charges of being war criminals."

"The Essential Task Of UN Troops In East Timor"

Pro-government, Islamic-oriented Pelita held (9/18): "The peacekeepers, and Australia in particular, must understand that pro-integration groups have been in a difficult and dangerous situation. If international troops can convince pro-integration militias that there is no imminent threat, and thus reconcile them with pro-independence groups, it will simplify matters. In principle, we believe that Australia, if it wishes to do so, can best manage the situation. Australia and Indonesia once submitted a joint proposal for a Cambodia peace process which proved to work well. This particular experience should be useful in East Timor, which is a much simpler task than Cambodia."

"East Timor Stigma"

Independent Media Indonesia asserted (9/18): "Stigmas are not created without reason. There is a casus belli, which the West always defines as violations to human rights and dignity.... East Timor gives us a new stigma: military fascism. What shall we do? It is horrible to hear such terms as genocide, crimes against humanity, and international tribunal associated with Indonesia. The presence of peacekeepers reinforces the stigma."

"Approaching The Most Critical Point"

Nationalistic tabloid Rakyat Merdeka insisted (9/20): "The East Timor question will not end with the presence of Australia-led peacekeepers. It will definitely have an unpleasant impact on national unity. The presence of foreign troops in Indonesia can rend the nation. What does it all mean? From its initial critical mistakes, the government has moved forward to more critical mistakes and is finally trapped in a quagmire bringing Indonesia to the height of crisis. The impression that Habibie victimized himself and all the nation to maintain the status quo is getting more difficult to remove."

"Statement Of UN Forces' Commander"

Ruling Golkar Party's Suara Karya insisted (9/20): "We expect [Major General] Peter Cosgrove will honor his pledge to 'act with full feeling, wisdom, and take into account the dignity of all the East Timorese.' More than that, he must act fairly! Not only pro-integration groups should surrender their weapons, but pro-independence as well. Only by displaying a wise and fair attitude, and respect for the dignity of all the East Timorese, will Cosgrove be able to carry out his duty successfully."

"Speeded-Up MPR General Session For Political Certainty"

Under the above headline, independent afternoon Berita Buana pointed out (9/17): "The international community has yet to see that we have done the maximum by accepting peacekeepers in East Timor. If pro-integration militias oppose the peacekeepers and we are suspected of being behind any attacks, it will have an unpleasant impact on the process of economic restoration."

"Interfet's Authority Must Be Clear"

Sensationalist Pos Kota declared (9/20): "Imagine, to secure a territory of only 16,500 square kilometers, the UN has dispatched 8,000 troops and numerous warships.... It is no exaggeration to worry that this formidable force may be prepared to hit Indonesia solely on the basis that Indonesia has not cooperated with Interfet. There have been many cases in which UN peacekeeping missions have conflicts with host country militaries due to overlapping, hazy authority and confused political interests among the countries comprising the forces."

"Force Build-Up"

According to the government-oriented, English-language Indonesian Observer (9/18): "Despite assurances given by the Habibie government that Indonesia will accept whatever the outcome of the referendum may have been, it has now reversed its standpoint and blamed the West, particularly Australia and the United States, for the decision in favor of independence, thereby robbing Indonesia of its victory in the referendum."

"Australian Ambivalence"

Muslim-intellectual Republika averred (9/20): "How can [the Australians] talk about respecting the rights of the East Timorese, when the Native Welfare Act gives the Australian government the right to take Aborigine children away from their parents? Australia must be aware of this inconsistency."

CHINA: "What Are The Chances For Peace In East Timor?"

Guo Ji commented in the Central Legal Committee Legal Daily (Fazhi Ribao, 9/18): "East Timor has already decided on independence, which is not an easy path to follow. It requires a lot more than courage."

"Where Is The Guardian Of Human RIghts?"

Xiao Lei remarked in Central Legal Committee Legal Daily (Fazhi Ribao, 9/18): "In fact, America has a moral obligation toward East Timor. Twenty-four years ago, with the United States' permission, Indonesian troops entered East Timor and caused the deaths of nearly 200,000 people. Won't the sacrifice of lives in East Timor 24 years ago justify today's U.S. efforts for peace and stability?"

HONG KONG: "China Joins In"

The independent South China Morning Post remarked in its editorial (9/18): "As a permanent member of the Security Council, China is in a position to play an important role in international affairs. In the past, that power has not always been exercised in a constructive way. But the decision to join the East Timor force, albeit with misgivings, suggests that Beijing is serious in its goal of establishing itself as a bigger player in the world community."

"The Timor Test"

The independent South China Morning Post commented in its editorial (9/20): "Today will see the start of yet another test of Indonesia's political reliability when the first United Nations-endorsed peacekeepers land in East Timor to restore and maintain order. If Jakarta performs as disgracefully as it has in the past, grim times lie ahead.... If the army lets its militia puppets fight the UN forces, then Jakarta should pay a heavy price. International agencies should halt all aid, and other countries should bring maximum pressure on Indonesia to act like the responsible nation it so often claims to be. East Timor deserves the peace and freedom for which its people have suffered so much."

NEW ZEALAND: "Challenging Mission"

Readers of the South Island's top-circulation, moderate Christchurch Press saw this editorial (9/18): "The UN decision to send a force into East Timor is an end of one chapter, but it may be followed by a similarly fraught one. The peacekeepers will surely halt the massacres but in doing so, may meet violent opposition.... No effective mechanism was put in place to protect the referendum organisers or Timorese civilians after the vote, even though the fanatical nature of the anti-independence militias was known and the unpredictability of the Indonesian military recognised. Had those realities been properly taken into account, and an effective security operation mounted...today's bloodshed would not be taking place. The UN must establish far better early-warning systems that ring alarm bells when such conflicts are brewing.... Peacemakers are, unfortunately, what is needed in East Timor because of the lack of foresight that more competent diplomacy would have brought to bear."

"Best Wishes To Timor Troops"

Wellington's moderate Evening Post argued (9/17): "The madness that's beset East Timor needs to be stopped, and quickly. Putting the brakes on killings and creating a secure platform for the realization of independence for the territory is critical for regional stability.... The New Zealand military commitment, in concert with Australia's, needs to be accompanied by intensive diplomatic efforts to ensure long-term relationships with Indonesia are kept in good order. In the meantime, we wish our troops well in their important task, and a safe return."

"Going Into Harm's Way"

The top-circulation, moderate New Zealand Herald judged (9/17): "We are talking about war, whatever title the United Nations may prefer for its armed intervention in East Timor. There is no peace to keep there. People need to be protected by a considerable display of military force and the troops have to be prepared for resistance. That is war by any definition.... The East Timorese urgently need outside military help.... The United Nations Security Council, having learned the perils of sending a force half-cocked into Bosnia, has set realistic terms of engagement for the troops going into East Timor.... The Australians and their allies could be fighting for a very long time to secure East Timor. New Zealanders should be alongside them, properly equipped and prepared, with the country united behind them. And there is no time to waste."

"Guarding Democracy"

Dunedin's conservative Otago Daily Times stressed (9/18): "It is not overstating the case to say that, long-term, East Timor will require a rethink of defence and foreign policy for every nation in Southeast Asia. Six weeks ago, no public figure or organisation, least of all the United Nations, was forecasting an anarchic outcome of the vote for independence. New Zealand's contribution to the East Timor peacekeeping force is, almost unbelievably, the best we can manage.... We are sending a pathetic, inadequate, collection of rag-taggle defense equipment, much of which is long past its 'use-by' date. The armchair generals and isolationists who are so critical of defence spending need to examine their consciences. A policy of neutrality, or at best self-defence, would have led to us having to decline any role defending democracy in East Timor. That would have been inexcusable."

PHILIPPINES: "No Walk In The Park"

The independent Manila Standard indicated (9/20): "The first batch of Filipino officers and soldiers have left for East Timor via Darwin, Australia.... Our boys, as well as their ASEAN and Australian counterparts, may be welcomed by the majority of East Timorese, but a small minority will only be too glad to kill any member of the UN peacekeeping force for no other reason than to send a message.... It will be no picnic or a walk in the park. But because it needs to be done, sending our best men and women in uniform is the best to do our part."

"More Unrest Could Affect Entire Region"

The conservative, third-leading Philippine Star maintained (9/18): "The arrival of the peacekeepers is awaited on the island, but it presages more trouble for Indonesia, where nationalists are against independence for East Timor. Losing East Timor could herald more political unrest in Indonesia, and the jitters could affect the entire region. It cannot be ruled out that the Indonesian military will continue providing tacit support to the East Timorese militias. If multinational peacekeepers find it difficult to carry out their mission in East Timor, Jakarta should bear the blame."

"Less Heat, More Light On The Complex Situation"

In a commentary in the most widely-read Philippine Daily Inquirer (9/18), Sylvia Mayuga said, "International consensus on human rights and transparency of government can exempt no one in the face of the violence and corruption now festering in an old order as closely intertwined with its military as Indonesia's own struggle for independence. Less heat, more light on the complex reality of the world's fourth most populous nation--beginning with avoiding blanket condemnations--like the one we're hearing now from the UNHCR's Mary Robinson on the Indonesian military--will help save innocent lives and reputations in a crisis the world has no choice but to understand and make its own."

THAILAND: "Tough Love Policy Moves The Region"

The lead editorial of top-circulation, moderately conservative Bangkok Post commented (9/20): "There can be no shirking of responsibility in Timor. The mission is to restore peace for the Timorese and to establish a new nation. That should mean an accounting for atrocities and war crimes. It is possible Thailand may have to testify, or even to act, against guilty Indonesians. Our authorities must do so, impartially."

"ASEAN's Coalition Of The Willing"

Kavi Chongkittavorn had this to say in the independent, English language Nation (9/20), "The crisis in East Timor has ironically provided unique opportunities for an individual ASEAN member that wants to join the international peacekeeping endeavor to do so without any prejudice.... Just two weeks ago, nobody thought a 'coalition of the willing' from among ASEAN members, particularly from the old members, was conceivable."

"We Are Right To Go Into Timor"

Editor Pichai Chuensuksawadi told readers of the top-circulation, moderately conservative, English language Bangkok Post (9/20): "The Thai deployment (of troops in East Timor) is right and just, despite the dangers. It is worthy of our full public support."

"ASEAN And Peacekeeping Troops"

The lead editorial of elite, business-oriented Krungthep Turakij argued (9/18), "ASEAN's open-mindedness by sending troops to join the UN peacekeeping force will help restore its credibility, long muddied by the blind attempt to protect the grouping's unity at all costs, even at the expense of righteousness."

"Thailand's Position On Timor"

The lead editorial of the sensationalist Thai Post contrended (9/18), "Thailand's decision to send troops to join the multi-national peacekeeping force in East Timor is justified.... We only hope that it will not be interpreted as an interference in the internal affairs of our friendly nation Indonesia; or manipulated by powerful nations to turn this multilateral effort into an all-out war, like the United States' claiming of world policing authority to ignite the historic genocidal war in Vietnam."

EUROPE

PORTUGAL: "Timor And Us"

Commentator Luis Salgado Matos maintained in center-left O Publico (9/20): "One of these days, we will fall back to reality and be angry with the world, and the sad state in which we find ourselves these last two weeks: We've discovered that we don't count for anything. To avoid this, the following act of moral hygiene is required: to publicy thank 'the boss of the world' for what he did for Timor. After thanking President Clinton, we have to ask ourselves if there is anything that we, and only we, can and should do. It seems there is. First: guarantee the independence. Second: guarantee its viability."

"Judgment Day"

An editorial in centrist Diario de Noticias by deputy editor-in-chief Antonio Ribeiro Ferreira insisted (9/20): "On the 16th day of the genocide, the first soldiers of the international peacekeeping force have entered Timor.... The death and destruction provoked by Indonesia will now be known in their full dimensions by the world. The criminals in Jakarta cannot, in the name of strategic interests or economics, be treated like serious and respectable people by the international community. The Indonesian criminals must be tried for everything they have done during the last 24 years of their occupation of Timor."

"U.S., UN And Timor"

In a commentary for centrist Diario de Noticias concluded (9/20): "We must be grateful to the United States and the UN. But the cost in lives of the delay is unforgiveable."

"The Razor's Edge"

Columnist Antonio Barreto emphasized in center-left O Publico (9/19): "I was happy to see that, contrary to the situation with Kosovo, the international 'mechanism' acted prudently. Means were found to save lives and defend rights, while also respecting political and legal rules acceptable for the future. I was happy to see that, contrary to what happened in Bosnia, the international community acted rapidly. It may seem crass, given the hundreds or thousands of deaths that have already occurred. But, with all that we know and the familiar precedents, the unheard-of promptness of the UN will remain one of its, few, moments of glory."

"Australia Steps Forth"

Editor-in-chief of centrist Diario de Noticias, M. Bettencourt Resendes, put forth this view (9/19): "The moment has come to note that Australia was the only country which came to recognize the sovereignty of Indonesia over Timor, a decision which at the time had to do with the partitioning of possible petroleum reserves in the surrounding seas."

BRITAIN: "A Test For ASEAN"

The independent Financial Times' editorial noted (9/20): "The deployment of a UN-mandated peacekeeping force in East Timor, due to begin today, will have ramifications far beyond that conflict-torn territory. Whatever happens, the exercise will provide a real test of the solidarity of ASEAN, several of whose members will eventually provide many of the peacekeeping troops. The operation amounts to the most dramatic departure to date from the ASEAN principle of non-interference in each other's affairs.... But in the event, Indonesia itself, compelled grudgingly to accept the multinational force, urged its fellow ASEAN members to be involved rather than pass the buck to Australia, New Zealand and Europe. The exercise is therefore in line with the inclination of Thailand, Singapore and the Philippines--and Indonesia itself--to see a more proactive ASEAN. Much depends now on the good sense of Indonesia's military commanders, who must bear responsibility for the bloodshed of recent weeks."

FRANCE: "Interfet In Action"

Patrick de Saint Exupery opined in right-of-center Le Figaro (9/20): "The operation that starts today is undoubtedly risky. Indonesia, which is deeply nationalistic, will have much difficulty in accepting such a wide deployment of foreign troops. While the outward trimmings of an Asian contingent are meant to save appearances, one wonders if it will be enough."

"The World's Sheriffs"

Pierre Rousselin asked in right-of-center Le Figaro (9/20): "Will Australia save the UN's lost honor in Dili?... Its mission is not an easy one, because in a sense, the Australian troops are too late.... Also because they belong to the West more than to Southeast Asia.... After Somalia, Haiti, Bosnia and Kosovo, Timor is the latest in a long list of interventions meant to impose a 'new world order.' More and more, the UN has divested itself of this duty in favor of others.... Each time, the UN has been unable to act for lack of means and general consensus.... Washington prefers that the world's sheriff should not always be the same.... It is unfortunate for the UN, which has simply become sound studio for taping speeches."

GERMANY: "The Worst Possible Scenario"

Andreas Baenziger stressed in centrist Sueddeutsche Zeitung of Munich (9/20): "The truth is that the success or failure of this peace mission in East Timor depends on the good will of the Indonesian generals. These generals have never been willing to accept East Timor's independence. And they were by no means willing to give it to Australians of all people, whom they consider white colonialists. [These generals] could even try to undermine Australia's efforts now. Here is the worst thinkable scenario: Indonesian agents provocateurs force Australian soldiers to fire at Indonesian forces.... As a result, a wave of nationalist protests could erupt, and the military takes advantage of the situation to suffocate the vulnerable democratic process in the country. Under pressure from outraged citizens, the advisory National Assembly refuses to accept the independence vote of the East Timorese.... As we said before, this is the worst thinkable scenario. What is worrying is that the worst scenario has always become reality in East Timor."

"Hopes, But Under Proviso"

Centrist Der Tagesspiegel of Berlin concluded (9/18) carries an editorial under the headline: "Finally, the news from East Timor sounds better.... Hope is spreading. This shows what cohesion in the UN is able to achieve.... For the future, this teaches us the lesson that the hesitation of the international community costs the lives of people. To act in unison and to act in common does not fail to have an effect. The 'protective force' has now been set up and is on its way to East Timor--and Jakarta is moving. President Habibie seems to be interested in future Western cooperation.... Now we would like to see as the next message that the Indonesian military has really been withdrawn from the region. Peace can come."

"The Occupiers Are Fleeing"

Hinnerk Berlekamp argued in an editorial in left-of-center Berliner Zeitung (9/19): "Never before has an occupying regime liquidated itself as the one in East Timor.... With the hasty withdrawal, the government in Jakara has stolen itself out of its responsibility for East Timor. The thousands of expelled East Timorese will have to suffer from this: the army willingly offered trucks for their deportation, but it does not now want to be responsible for their return. And it is even less thinking of disarming the militia groups which it set up and equipped with arms. Even if splinter groups of them stayed in East Timor, the paramilitary forces can continue to spread fear and terror for a long time to come. Nevertheless, there is no reason to stop the withdrawing forces. Over the past few weeks, the Indonesian army has done nothing to stop the looting and killing in East Timor. On the contrary, it participated in them. Their continued presence would not resolve any of the problems. Under these circumstances, it would be better to withdraw as soon as possible."

ITALY: "Peacekeeping Begins"

Pietro Veronese filed from Jakarta in left-leaning, influential La Repubblica (9/20): "After many days of terror, uncertainty, delays and mobilization, the peacekeeping operation has begun in East Timor.... It is a mission that Australia is taking on with great apprehension.... The effort which begins today under the UN flag is not only a military one. It is necessary to bring first aid to a starving population.... There is a political aspect too. The final aim is to implement East Timor's independence."

"Australia: New Power In The World's Southeast"

Aldo Rizzo penned this analysis in centrist, influential La Stampa (9/20): "Just as Europe will not be the same after the war for Kosovo, it is likely that the geopolitics in the Far East will significantly change after the crisis in East Timor....

"Australia is giving more than half of the soldiers in the multinational force in East Timor, and, what matters most, it has the military command, with the UN authorization.... In other words, Australia is emerging as a new regional power between the Indian Ocean and the Pacific. Indeed, this is not the only novelty. Countries such as Thailand, South Korea, the Philippines, Malaysia and Japan, in addition to New Zealand, are also part of the multinational force.... As a confirmation of the interest in this grouping...there is also China's offer to participate with civilian police, while Japan announced financial support. Obviously, there is the Western presence too...but the East and Southeast Asian aspect of this expeditionary peace corps in East Timor, led by Australia, prevails. There are clear risks in this...but there is also the making of a new and more stable system of relations in the world's Southeast."

POLAND: "Hypocrisy"

Natalia Wislicz wrote in the leftist Trybuna (9/18-19): "Not long ago, leading ideologists of the intervention in Kosovo stated euphorically that NATO intends now to extend the area and scope of its activities to defend...human rights wherever they are endangered.... But when in the wake of the referendum--organized and conducted under the auspices of the UN--the people of East Timor, subjugated by Indonesia 24 years ago, voted for independence, and when consequently pro-Indonesia militia groups instigated a bloody slaughter at an unprecedented scale and forced UN observers to flee, no one was eager to seriously consider the involvement of the international community' and bombardment of military targets in Indonesia.... In the Security Council, two states spoke with an otherwise seldom unanimity against sending peacekeeping troops to Timor without Jakarta's consent: these were China and the United States. It is as if [NATO] chose to condition its intervention in Kosovo on Milosevic's agreement."

SPAIN: "East Timor: With Best Of Intentions"

Liberal El Pais's Andres Ortega ventured (9/20): "Ever since the end of the Cold War the international community, led by the United States, has increasingly resorted to military and diplomatic intervention. While this tendency may be justifiable, it also has its dark and undesirable aspects. Such interventions are often poorly executed and arrive too late. In the interim, whether because of faulty information or poor planning, and despite the best of international intentions, they only cause more suffering among those they are intended to assist. The world is becoming increasingly willing to engage in interventionism, but lacks the institutional and other means needed to resolve, much less anticipate, the crises they are intended to alleviate before they degenerate into conflict. The case of East Timor has become a paradigm in this context."

SWITZERLAND: "Jakarta's Very Last Chance"

Daniel Goldstein, foreign editor of Bern's conservative Der Bund, observed (9/20): "With the arrival of UN troops in East Timor, Indonesia is given a very last chance to regain a minimum of international respectability in the Timor tragedy. But it is not enough that the Indonesian troops retreat as agreed upon and only leave behind a contingent of 'helpers.' Almost the contrary: The army has to withdraw the militia and prevent them from continuing to wreak havoc from the western part of the island. Otherwise the UN operation simply becomes the next chapter in the Indonesian double dealing.... The complicity of the army with the militia has been proven; the only thing not clear yet is how high up this complicity went in the military--only to the regional commander, or to Chief of the Army Wiranto, or even to President Habibie. The civil and military leadership can exonerate themselves halfway if they now insist on a complete and real withdrawal. The fighters for independence have shown that the guerrillas can hold out for years in the central Timor mountains, but if the pro-Indonesia militias are cut off from the mother country and, in addition, are actively fought they will give up.

"After all the atrocities Indonesia committed in East Timor during the last 25 years, culminating in a scorched earth strategy, Jakarta cannot simply extricate itself and watch how the small UN contingent handles the militias."

MIDDLE EAST

BAHRAIN: "UN Role In World Affairs Remains Crucial And Necessary"

Semi-independent Akhbar Al-Khalij ran this comment (9/16) by Moosa Saeed: "The UNSC decision to send peacekeeping forces to East Timor reflects the desire of the international community to put an end to the tragedy there and to the crimes committed by the militias of the Indonesian regime. The United Nations' attempt to find a peaceful solution for East Timor, through holding a referendum, and then its attempt to put an end to the tragedy, through sending a peacekeeping force, shows that the UN role in the world's affairs remains crucial and necessary."

SOUTH ASIA

INDIA: "Timor Bleeds As UN Drags Feet"

The centrist Times of India published this comment (9/19) by correspondent Harvey Stockwin: "The force now cobbled together is a 'coalition of the willing,' in which the contributing nations pay for themselves. It is a peace-restoring intervention force, not a peacekeeping force paid for by the UN.... Much depends on what motivated the Indonesian military to behave the way they have done.... The fact that the mayhem could be turned off and on in this way strongly suggests that it was purposeful in the first place.... But, beyond Timor, there is an even more troubling question: Was the Indonesian-sponsored mayhem meant to begin the process of undermining and destroying indonesia's current democratic experiment, preparing the way for a military coup in Jakarta?"

"Distinct Identity"

This op-ed piece by A.N. Ram appeared in the right-of-center Pioneer (9/19): "The recent referendum held in East Timor is as much a victory for those who seek a distinct national identity in a country of their own as it is for those in Indonesian leadership who, for pragmatic political reasons, were compelled to take a courageous decision to permit such a referendum.... Some out of context and irrelevant comments have been made in the Pakistani media about the possible relevance of the East Timor referendum to Jammu and Kashmir. Such motivated and mischievous comparisons are unwarranted and misplaced.... India has traditionally enjoyed the best of relations with Indonesia and will continue to develop these ties bilaterally and also in the context of indonesia's membership of asean and other international fora. Once East Timor becomes a separate sovereign entity, hopefully with Indonesia' support, we will no doubt develop close relations with that country, both bilaterally and in the ASEAN context."

NEPAL: "A New Course For The UN?"

Government-owned Gorkhapatra ran this op-ed piece (9/18): "The international action in this troubled area is being tested as an experiment.... Calling foreign troops to quell the domestic trouble is perhaps the first such instance in the world.... It can also show a new course to the UN.... Why did the UN delay its decision to deploy international troops when it very well knew that the militia would create trouble after the referendum?... Perhaps the reason for this was the stated view of the United States, which maintained earlier that the situation in East Timor was not comparable to that in Kosovo.... Without U.S. cooperation, it is not possible to take up the costly job of peace-keeping....

"The United States and its allies had no prior approval of the decision to take actions in Iraq and Kosovo, but in the case of East Timor, the UN has formally decided to intervene. Unlike in Iraq and Kosovo, the Indonesian government itself called for the deployment of peacekeeping forces.... If the UN can maintain this course even in the future, it won't have to remain as powerless as before."

WESTERN HEMISPHERE

ARGENTINA: "Unwanted Mission"

Claudio Uriarte, international analyst for left-of-center Pagina 12, offered this analysis (9/20): "For good or ill, the multinational peace force of 8,000 men led by Australia will enter East Timor this week.... Predictions are at least shady. On one hand, Australia had to intervene to avoid the leakage of refugees from East Timor on its coasts. In this sense, (Australia's) reasons are more pragmatic than idealistic. Ironically, Australia was one of the few important countries which in 1976 recognized the annexation of the former Portuguese colony by...Indonesia.... The political dilemma of the mission led by General Cosgrove...[is that] he may pacify East Timor, but he may also promote the breaking into pieces of other regions of the archipelago. Or the presence of a multinational force in East Timor may divide the Indonesian army and open the prospect of a civil war. In any event, the disintegration of the archipelago is a possibility. And from the geopolitical viewpoint, that possibility is equivalent to chaos."

For more information, please contact:

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Telephone: (202) 619-4355

9/20/99

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