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Kishida Fumio

Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio announced 14 August 2024 his decision not to run in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's leadership election in September. It means Japan will soon have a new prime minister. In reality, there was a judgment that it would be difficult for him to be reelected by the party under the current circumstances. It has been pointed out that Kishida's relationship with LDP Vice President Aso Taro and LDP Secretary General Motegi Toshimitsu had been getting worse. They were seen as the key players in his administration. This will be the first LDP presidential election since the faction structure was dissolved.

A House of Representatives election must be held before October 2025. The next House of Councillors election is due in July 2025, So the biggest question is when will the new party president decide to dissolve the Lower House. The ruling and opposition parties will be working out their campaign strategies in the meantime.

Kishida explained his decision in a news conference. The prime minister said: "In the up-coming presidential election, it's necessary to show the people that the Liberal Democratic Party will change. To this end, a transparent and open election, and free and open debate are important. The first easy-to-understand step that indicates that the LDP will change is for me to step back."

Kishida added that his administration had promoted wage increases and investment to put an end to 30 years of deflation. The government also transformed its energy policy to deal with a significant increase in electricity demand. He noted that under his tenure the government implemented large-scale measures to deal with the declining birthrate and significantly strengthened Japan's defense capability. He said Japan had hosted the G7 Hiroshima summit based on strong Japan-US relations, and has led discussions toward cooperation in the increasingly divided international community, and conducting multifaceted diplomacy. Kishida said, "I am proud that my administration was able to produce such major achievements."

His announcement follows a political funding scandal involving factions within the LDP. Kishida has worked to regain public trust in politics by trying to reform the party. He sought the dissolution of its factions and punished lawmakers linked to the scandal. Kishida also revised the political funds control law. Kishida said the only thing still remaining is the matter of his responsibility as LDP leader regarding politics and money. He said, "I don't have any hesitation in taking responsibility as the head of the party for the serious situation caused by lawmakers belonging to it".

The prime minister said that he had decided to do so when the incident first occurred. Kishida said, "I want to take responsibility by stepping down at a time when the diplomatic schedule has wound down for the time being". But his reforms did not stem growing public criticism of the government. Recent opinion polls show that approval ratings for Kishida's Cabinet are low. There is increasing concern within the LDP that the party will struggle in the next Lower House election. Kishida declined to comment when asked by reporters who he supports to succeed him in the party's presidential election.

The race to find his successor has begun, with several prominent figures emerging as potential candidates.

1. Shigeru Ishiba - former Japanese Defense Minister reaffirmed his intention to run in the presidential election of LDP in September following Kishida's decision not to join the race. Ishiba is popular among the Japanese public, often leading opinion polls for preferred Prime Minister. Ishiba would likely bring a focus on defense and security policies, potentially taking a more assertive stance on Japan’s military capabilities,
2. Yoko Kamikawa - Currently serving as Foreign Minister, is known for her strong stance on justice and security issues, particularly during her time as Justice Minister, where she gained attention for signing the execution orders of members of the Aum Shinrikyo cult.
3. Katsunobu Kato - A potential compromise candidate, Kato has extensive experience in managing Japan’s COVID-19 response and has served in various important government positions. His low-profile but steady approach could appeal to those looking for stability.
4. Shinjiro Koizumi - The son of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, Shinjiro is a younger and more reform-minded politician. He has previously served as the Environment Minister and is known for his advocacy on climate issues. Although popular with the public, his political standing within the LDP is less certain.
5. Taro Kono - Currently serving as the Digital MinisterKnown for his tech-savvy and maverick approach, Kono is another leading candidate. He has held key roles in both defense and foreign affairs and is popular for his efforts to modernize Japan’s bureaucracy.
6. Toshimitsu Motegi - Currently serving as the Secretary-General of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), Motegi is a seasoned politician with experience in various cabinet roles, including as Foreign Minister. He is seen as a strong candidate due to his tough negotiating skills and connections, particularly with international figures like Donald Trump.
7. Sanae Takaichi - A hard-line conservative,currently serving as the Economic Security Minister, Takaichi has a reputation for her strong stances on economic security and nationalism. Her leadership could strain Japan’s relations with neighboring countries, particularly South Korea and China.

These candidates reflect a range of policy preferences and political styles, making the upcoming leadership contest a crucial moment for Japan's future direction.

Kishida assumed the premiership in October 2021. He was the eighth longest-serving Prime Minister in Japan's post-war period. Kishida Fumio is known as a soft-spoken, honest politician. A man called too serious -- or even boring -- reached a pinnacle of political achievement as 100th Prime Minister.

The former LDP Policy Research Council Chairperson, become president of Japan's main ruling Liberal Democratic Party in the leadership election 29 September 2021. The career politician was virtually assured to become prime minister, following Suga Yoshihide. The race resulted in a runoff between Regulatory Reform Minister Kono Taro and Kishida. The two party veterans were not able to secure more than 50 percent of votes in the first round. In the runoff election, Kishida beat Kono, nabbing 257 votes to Kono's 170.

Kishida is a third-generation lawmaker -- seemingly destined to follow in the footsteps of his lawmaker father and grandfather. Although Japan has a democratically elected political system, politics is effectively monopolized by aristocratic families, and offices are semi-hereditary. The safest and most convenient way to become a politician is to be born in a family of high-ranking officials. Japan has always had five major political families (Hatoyama, Koizumi, Abe, Aso and Fukuda).

Kishida's grandfather, Masaki Kishida, participated in the war of aggression against China, and served as a naval participant in the Kanoe Fumio Cabinet from June 1937 to January 1939. Masaki Kishida organized the Japanese navy to carry out aggression against neighboring countries including China. Fumio Kishida’s father Fumitake Kishida was the head of the Small and Medium-sized Enterprise Agency and was elected to the House of Representatives many times.

After just five years as a banker Kishida first dipped his toes into public service. He became his father's secretary. In 1993, he took over that Hiroshima seat and has been re-elected eight times.

From 2007 to 2008, Kishida was state minister for Okinawa issues and for the Russian-held islands, for science and technology policy, and for regulatory reform during Abe’s first term as prime minister and that of his successor, Fukuda Yasuo.

On 07 November 2007 Prime Minister Fukuda Yasuo called in State Minister for People's Life Kishida to the Prime Minister's Official Residence (Kantei) and ordered him to review all policies, laws and ordinances from a perspective of attaching importance to consumers. Following a series of food-labeling scams, false earthquake-resistance calculations and the drug-induced hepatitis case, he wanted to switch his administration's basic policy from attaching importance to producers to laying emphasis on consumers. Prime Minister Fukuda on 05 February 2008 decided to appoint State Minister for People's Life to double as state minister for unifying consumer administration following the poisoning incident from Chinese-made gyoza dumplings.

In connection with the arrest 10 February 2008 of a U.S. Marine on suspicion of raping a junior high school girl in Okinawa, State Minister in Charge of Okinawa and Northern Territories Kishida told reporters : "I feel strong indignation over the incident, which should never have occurred." As to whether it is necessary to take a second look at the Japan-U.S. Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA), Kishida said, "The first thing to do is to strengthen discipline among the military personnel and discuss measures to prevent a recurrence of similar incidents. Then, we must think whether there is need to take other action." When asked about the impact of the incident on the relocation plan for the U.S. Futenma Air Station, Kishida went no further than to say: "While listening fully to views of the Okinawa people, we want to deal specifically with the base relocation issue and the issue of reducing Okinawa's military burden."

Prime Minister Fukuda decided 17 June 2008 to appoint Minister of State for Science and Technology Policy Fumio Kishida as space development minister to be newly set up based on the Basic Space Law, which was enacted in May. The Basic Space Law lifted the ban on the use of space for defense purposes.

Kishida was initially tapped as foreign minister in 2012 in the hope that someone with his experience would help resolve the standoff over the relocation of Okinawa’s U.S. Marine Corps Air Station Futenma and to make progress in resolving the territorial dispute with Russia.

He served as foreign minister for over 4 straight years—a record in post-war Japan. During this stint, he welcomed then US President Barack Obama to his home constituency of Hiroshima, the site of the world's first atomic bombing. Kishida also worked to ease long-standing tensions with Seoul. In 2015, he struck a deal with his South Korean counterpart on the politically sensitive issue surrounding people referred to as wartime comfort women. Kishida went on to assume the position of LDP policy chief, one of the top executive posts in the party.

On 04 October 2021, Diet members elect the country's new prime minister. Kishida was virtually assured to win, as the LDP and its junior coalition partner Komeito control both Houses of the Diet. Kishida called on the party to unify so that it can achieve its goals and meet the needs of the people it represents.

Kishida made a speech to LDP members of the Lower and Upper House. He said, "Japan continues to face crises. We need to fight against the coronavirus pandemic with firm resolve. And we'll need to hammer out an economic package worth several tens of trillions of yen by the year-end. Beyond that, we also need to handle important challenges related to our country's future. They include adopting a new form of capitalism, realizing a free and open Indo-Pacific and countering a declining birthrate. I will devote myself to tackling these tasks starting today."

Kishida campaigned on rebuilding the country's medical system and economy -- both hit hard by the coronavirus pandemic. Kishida Fumio has proposed a four-pillar strategy for tackling the pandemic. He would set up temporary hospitals to bring to zero the number of patients who have to wait to be hospitalized as well as implementing an economic stimulus program worth several hundred billion dollars to help struggling businesses stay afloat.

While expressing approval for Abenomics, Kishida has called for a shift away from neoliberal policies and vowed to aim for a new form of capitalism based on a virtuous cycle of growth and distribution. He says he would take tax measures to encourage pay raises for employees and boost the income of healthcare and nursery workers. Kishida also planned to inject some 90 billion dollars into the science and technology sector.

Kishida said he would aim to achieve a free and open Indo-Pacific based on the Japan-US alliance. He also says he would bolster the capabilities of the Japan Coast Guard, which patrols the country's territorial waters, and give it more authority to respond to various contingencies. The former foreign minister also has a plan for raising Japan's image abroad.

Kishida says, "I'm making three commitments for diplomacy and security. I am determined to protect democracy and other universal values, to protect Japan's peace and stability, to protect our interests through raising Japan's presence in the international community by contributing to solving environmental and other global challenges. I will carry out foreign and defense policies based on these commitments and achieve a free and open Indo-Pacific."

Kishida said it is a given that renewable energy should be utilized to the maximum extent. He also says he would support investment in new clean energy technology such as small nuclear reactors and nuclear fusion.

Korean analysts said Tokyo's hardline policy on Seoul will likely remain in place. "President Moon Jae-in's term ends in May next year so it'll be difficult to expect any major changes in the two countries' relationship right away when one administration is departing soon." The topic perhaps attracting the most attention is his stance on comfort women and wartime sexual slavery.

Kishida, as Japan's ex-foreign minister, was the one who signed the 2015 agreement with Seoul on the Japanese military's sexual enslavement of Korean women during World War II, now in tatters as the current administration later embraced victims' claims that the deal was reached without full consent. "Acknowledging the comfort women's struggle and making concessions won't serve the LDP well, in terms of public support, heading into the upcoming Japanese general election"

Kishida once served as Japan's acting defense minister but the LDP faction he leads is considered the party's "dovish wing" against the nuclear arming of the nation and supportive of Japan's pacifist constitution. From Hiroshima himself, several members of Kishida's family died when the atomic bomb was dropped in 1945.

By November 2022 speculation persisted that Kishida would call a snap election for the House of Representatives in January to reverse his fortunes after a string of resignations by members of his Cabinet. Internal affairs minister Minoru Terada stepped down on 24 November 2022 over a funding scandal, becoming the third member of the Kishida Cabinet to quit over the past month after the resignations of economic revitalization minister Daishiro Yamagiwa on Oct. 24 and Justice Minister Yasuhiro Hanashi on Nov. 11.

Kishida's political clout could be weakened further as he faced a host of challenges going into the end of the year, including passing legislation aimed at helping victims of religious groups, addressing a proposal to raise taxes to increase defense spending, and crafting a medical and nursing care insurance reform plan that could raise the financial burden on elderly people.

Kishida on 28 December 2022 floated the possibility of calling a snap election before a tax increase aimed at funding the country's defence budget comes into place “sometime after 2024�. The government was set to implement tax increases to cover a shortfall of 1 trillion yen ($7.47 billion) in the defense budget, despite stiff opposition from within the ruling coalition amid Kishida's sagging popularity. “We will be asking the general public to take on the (tax) burden for an appropriate period of time, starting from sometime after 2024 up to 2027. We'll make a decision on when it starts, and I think there could be an election by then,� Kishida said.

The government indicated it will partially cover defense spending through tax hikes. During an 01 January 2023 news conference, Kishida did not rule out the possibility of the House of Representatives being dissolved for a snap general election ahead of the tax hikes, saying, "It's possible in terms of the schedule."

Responding to a a January 2923 NHK opinion poll on whether they would support tax hikes to finance an increase in defense spending, 28 percent said yes, but 61 percent said no. Forty-nine percent said the Lower House should be dissolved for a general election before such tax increases, while 35 percent said there is no need to do so.

Kishida Fumio suggested he will dissolve the Lower House and call a general election "at an appropriate time". He made the comment during an NHK debate program on 09 January 2023. Kishida's Cabinet has a low approval rating following a series of ministerial resignations and revelations of lawmakers' ties to the religious group widely known as the Unification Church. Kishida said those problems have reminded him of the importance of trust in politics.

The prime minister expressed his intention to tackle a range of issues related to energy, national defense and the economy. He also stressed the need to improve Japan's low birthrate. Japan holds the presidency of the Group of Seven nations this year, and will chair a summit in Hiroshima in May.

But most members of the government and ruling coalition have expressed doubts about a snap election after the start of the year. Faced with falling public support ratings, Kishida is not in a strong enough position to to call a snap election, they said.