14 December 2005
Pandemic Flu Could Depress U.S. Economy 5 Percent
U.S. budget analysts predict impact of pandemic influenza
By Charlene Porter
Washington File Staff Writer
Washington – The U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that a wave of pandemic influenza could depress gross domestic product (GDP) by 5 percent at worst, and at its mildest, the flu would cause barely a ripple in the economy.
A research and analysis agency of the U.S. Congress, the CBO looked at severe episodes of pandemic influenza that have occurred in the past and calculated that 90 million people in the United States might be affected, resulting in 2 million deaths.
“These are huge numbers,” said Senator Bill Frist, the leader of the Senate’s Republican party, who asked the CBO to conduct the research. “This scenario suggests that a severe influenza pandemic would have an impact on the U.S. economy that is slightly larger than the typical recession experienced since World War II. On average those recessions lowered real GDP 4.7 percent.”
The CBO analysis found that human choices would be a significant factor in economic decline, as people changed their habits to avoid exposure to disease.
“Nonessential activities that required social contact would be sharply cut, which would lead to significant declines in retail trade,” the report says. “People would avoid public places, such as shopping malls, community centers, places of worship and public transit.”
As a result of these behavioral changes, the CBO report finds that the entertainment, arts and hospitality industries would suffer some of the worst economic pain in the event of pandemic.
At the opposite extreme, CBO also projected a scenario involving a milder strain of flu with less severe consequences for human beings and the national pocketbook. That kind of pandemic might infect about 75 million people with an estimated 100,000 deaths. Economically, such an event “would cause growth to slow, but would probably not cause real GDP to fall.”
The CBO serves up these projections with a good dose of equivocation because of the many uncertainties about whether a pandemic will occur, when it would occur and how severe it would be.
The pandemic influenza event of 1918-1919, the cause of tens of millions of deaths, frequently is cited as the historical example of a disastrous event to avoid as medical experts watch the emergence of a new and deadly viral strain. The CBO report says the early 21st century is very different from the early 20th century. The advancement of medical technology and therapies, and improvements in disease surveillance provide reason to believe that renegade disease could not sweep the human population so rapidly now.
On the other hand, the CBO presents an alternate argument – that in a more densely populated world where air travel is frequent, disease may move more rapidly than in the past.
The report projects that the U.S. economy would spring back from pandemic, just as it has from other natural disasters and hardships.
The full text of the report, A Potential Influenza Pandemic: Possible Macroeconomic Effects and Policy Issues (PDF, 50 pages), is available on the CBO Web site.
MORE DISEASE IN ASIA
Every few days that pass seem to bring a new reminder to officials in Washington and other capitals of the potential threat of pandemic influenza. The World Health Organization December 14 affirmed an Indonesian Ministry of Health finding of another human infection with the H5N1 avian influenza virus.
A 35-year-old man from West Jakarta developed symptoms of fever, cough and breathing difficulty on November 6 and died on November 19. This death is the ninth human fatality from bird flu reported in Indonesia, and the 14th human case of the disease.
Although the vast majority of the 138 human cases occurring in five nations have been directly linked to exposure to sick birds, this latest Indonesian victim did not keep birds in his own household. Domesticated birds did roam his neighborhood, so medical officials are hunting for further cases in West Jakarta.
For more information on U.S. and international efforts to combat avian influenza, see Bird Flu (Avian Influenza).
(The Washington File is a product of the Bureau of International Information Programs, U.S. Department of State. Web site: http://usinfo.state.gov)
|
NEWSLETTER
|
| Join the GlobalSecurity.org mailing list |
|
|
|
