DATE=9/7/2000
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=NORTH-SOUTH KOREA
NUMBER=5-46979
BYLINE=STEPHANIE MANN
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
INTERNET=YES
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: After the recent Korean summit and family
reunions, some observers describe the mood in South
Korea as euphoric - with many people hoping for speedy
reunification of the divided peninsula. But analysts
in the United States say their optimism should be
tempered by a large dose of caution, as this week's
incident in Frankfurt, Germany, indicates.
Correspondent Stephanie Mann reports.
TEXT: The June summit in Pyongyang has led to
dramatic progress in efforts to improve relations
between North and South Korea.
Reunions have been held among family members separated
since the Korean War 50-years ago, and there are plans
for more such reunions. The two sides are talking
about reconnecting a cross-border railway, and they
have also agreed to hold military talks to try to
reduce tensions. In addition, South Korean President
Kim Dae-Jung is proposing the two Koreas sign their
own peace treaty to formally end the state of war that
has existed since the conflict stopped in 1953.
So much progress in just a few weeks has prompted a
lot of enthusiasm in South Korea and raised hopes
about reunification.
Professor Samuel Kim, director of the Center for
Korean Research at Columbia University (in New York),
says the June summit was a positive historic
development. But he cautions against undue optimism.
// ACT ONE - KIM //
I think it has aroused the expectation of some
sort of unification miracle (to) come about,
expectation that now with this inter-Korean
summit there is no need for the presence of
United States troops, and (it) also gives
powerful ammunition to the radical leftist
forces, and anti-American movement.
// END ACT //
In recent weeks, anti-American demonstrations have
been held in Seoul. Protesters say U-S troops are no
longer needed in South Korea because the two Koreas
are on the path of reconciliation.
But Korea expert Gordon Flake says the protests do not
represent a groundswell of opinion in South Korea.
// OPT // ACT TWO - FLAKE //
We are entering a very precarious period of time
when emotions can sometimes outstrip logic, and
when it is an extremely sensitive nationalistic
period of time. There is going to be pressures
on the U-S troop presence. I think policy
makers on both sides, and apparently now in both
Koreas, recognize the utility and the necessity
even of keeping them on board.
// END ACT // END OPT //
Mr. Flake is executive director of the Mansfield
Center for Pacific Affairs in Washington. He says the
summit was made possible not because of any changes in
North Korea, which still maintains strict control over
all aspects of society. Instead, Mr. Flake gives all
the credit to South Korea and President Kim Dae Jung's
so-called "sunshine policy" of opening to the North.
// ACT THREE - FLAKE //
Basically, it is Kim Dae-Jung who is the first
president in South Korean history who is come in
confident enough to make compromises, to realize
that they can concede and themselves compromise
as a way of moving things forward.
// END ACT //
But Gordon Flake says South Korea's concessions to
foster cooperation with the North have not been
matched by any substance from Pyongyang.
// ACT FOUR - FLAKE //
What North Korea has done is to make a number of
very symbolic and admittedly important symbolic
compromises. But at the same time, the
fundamental shifts in their society that would
be necessary for any real reconciliation have
not begun to take place.
// END ACT //
Mr. Flake says North Korea must open its society to
allow more than what he calls stilted exchanges of
family members. He says North Korea must make
fundamental reforms to loosen its control over the
movement of people, the flow of information and the
methods of production for real progress to be made in
the North-South dialogue.
Samuel Kim says because such reforms would pose a
threat to the government in Pyongyang, the North is
reluctant to open up to the South.
// ACT FIVE - KIM //
If you have more and more exchanges - family
exchange, trade exchange, diplomatic exchange -
then North Korean people become more and more
aware of all the lies they have been told. And
the system becomes more and more unstable. And
I think North Korean leaders are fully aware of
this.
// END ACT //
But Professor Kim says there are things North Korea
can do to reciprocate for the economic aid it is
getting from the South. For example, he says the
North can allow family reunions that are not just
showcases, open North Korea to international
investment, engage in real military dialogue and
redeploy some of its troops away from the
demilitarized zone that separates the two Koreas.
Yet until there is real change in North Korea's
leadership and basic policies, Professor Kim says
there is no real foundation for long-term peace on the
Korean peninsula.
Gordon Flake says because of the North's history of
reneging on promises or just changing its mind, many
analysts in the United States expect something to
happen to shatter the current mood of optimism.
// OPT // ACT SIX- FLAKE //
I think those who watch North Korea closely are
now kind of waiting for the other shoe to drop.
Or another way to put it is we have become very
familiar with a process in North Korea of two
steps forward, one step back, or sometimes one
step forward, two steps back. And we are all
waiting for the step back, in anticipation of
something going awry here.
// END ACT // END OPT //
Samuel Kim says past efforts at North-South dialogue -
in the 1970's and again in the 1990's - were halted by
seemingly small incidents. And he points to the most
recent incident in Frankfurt when North Korean
diplomats cancelled a trip to New York because they
were subjected to a security search by a U-S airline.
Professor Kim says that episode likely will affect
talks between the United States and North Korea, but
he says it should not hurt the dialogue between the
North and South. Nevertheless, Mr. Kim says, it may
dampen the euphoric atmosphere and return a bit of
realism to the mood in South Korea. (SIGNED)
NEB/SMN/RAE
07-Sep-2000 12:09 PM EDT (07-Sep-2000 1609 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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